The Next War
Joan Didion said, “I write entirely to find out what I'm thinking, what I'm looking at, what I see, and what it means. What I want and what I fear.” That’s what I’m doing here with thoughts that have been percolating in my mind for the past few days.
The unspeakable atrocities committed against civilians by the terrorist group Hamas caught the world by surprise. Aside from the human cost, it also humiliated the Israeli intelligence apparatus, which utterly failed to see it coming. The Israeli military, however, has been prepared for this moment since the 1967 Six-Day War.
We’re going to see some horrifying developments in the Israeli-Gaza war in the days and weeks ahead. I watch and imagine what's next based on history and experience, and I think we’re about to see a prolonged Israeli occupation. Because I'm neither a Jew nor a Palestinian, every aspect of the region is steeped in millennia of conflict and suffering, and because I know there’s a lot I don't know, I try to be slow to form opinions. Every new conflict further upsets the balance of power that had been fairly stable since the end of the Cold War.
The world’s new Axis of Evil is forming. As the Russian dictator continues his assault on Ukraine, nations like Iran and North Korea rush to support him with cheap munitions. Iran, having recently had $6 billion of its assets unfrozen by the US, has apparently seen an opportunity to unleash Hamas—its medieval mob of fanatic proxy fighters—on Israeli civilians. World wars have started over less.
This much is predictable—as in the Peloponnesian War, or perhaps more aptly the Roman occupation of Palestine, there's only one way to control ground: by deploying troops into enemy territory. Cities can be bombed into dust, but until an invader puts its young people on foreign soil, not much changes. And as soon as the invader withdraws, they lose whatever control they once had.
Let's use Afghanistan as exhibit A. Or Iraq. Or, closer to home, notice how the United States, in the years following the Civil War, built forts all over the occupied South (naming them for Confederate generals in an effort to reduce the humiliation of the vanquished).
My point is that humanity never learns the obvious lesson that no war prevents another. In fact, history repeatedly shows that war only sets the conditions for future war. We repeat our mistakes. We follow the same sorts of populist demagogues who cover their war machines with a new camouflage pattern every generation and march in again as though this time it'll be different.
Israel will invade Gaza, as they should and as they must. Hamas, a tool of the theocratic-fascist Iranian regime, must be dismantled. Israel has the right, like any nation, to defend itself; if a government has one purpose, it's to protect its citizens. Americans were killed and taken hostage in the surprise attack as well, and I expect the US to go after them.
“All bad precedents begin as justifiable measures.” —Julius Caesar
What worries me is a suspicion that PM Benjamin Netanyahu--a former special operations soldier with considerable combat experience and, I believe, an axe to grind--has been awaiting this moment for decades, and that he'll use this casus belli as an opportunity to do something monstrous.
In any case, innocent Palestinian people who work hard to make a living and care for their families, are going to suffer. It’s essential that we—and especially the Israeli military—recognize the difference between Hamas, which must be destroyed, and the Palestinian people, essentially trapped in a crossfire without options.
How can we make human behavior more reasonable? I don’t have the answers. But we live in a republic that more or less allows us to very gradually steer it through our right to vote. So let’s vote for educated leaders with a thorough knowledge of history. Let’s choose politicians who value education, including teaching our children the whole truth without excluding the ugly parts. Let’s teach our children about slavery, genocide, and humanity’s long history of self-destruction. Let’s teach them about unfamiliar languages, religions, and ways of living and thinking. Let’s teach them compassion, not fear of what’s different.
When we inevitably train our young for war, let’s teach them that war is not only a grievous last resort, it’s the result of a tragic cascade of failure.